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National League Playoff Chances With Accuscore

Over at Federal Baseball they have a great collection of stories which look into just exactly how good the Nationals are.  It’s a useful debate, especially considering the fact that many outlets predicted the Nationals to finish, at best, fourth in the National League East. Starting this week, we will be looking at the shape of the National League playoff race every Monday with the help of Accuscore.

As you can see below, the Nationals 4-3 record last week helped them improve their playoff chances from 7.8% to 13.9%. Accuscore also projects that they have a 9.3% chance of becoming the National League East division champions. As Oh points out, the Nationals are just 2-4 against the Phillies (who have a 69% chance of winning the division) but 8-5 against everyone else they have played.

ACCUSCORE’S PLAYOFF PREVIEW

NATIONAL LEAGUE (By Stephen Oh)

The Chicago Cubs were 4-3, but saw a major +20 percentage point improvement.  While 4-3 is a solid record the reason why the Cubs improved this much was their sweep of Division rival, Milwaukee, on the road.  The Cubs also benefited by the 2-4

week from Florida and 1-5 week from Atlanta.  These two teams are prime Wild Card competitors and their struggles all directly boosted the Cubs’ chances.  Saint Louis was just 3-3, but they saw a slight bump again thanks to Florida and Atlanta combining for a 3-7 record.

Arizona was just 3-3 this week but again, the theme of this week is the importance of quality wins over likely playoff teams.  Arizona took 2 of 3 over Philadelphia on the road.  Considering Philly was a solid favorite in all 3 games Arizona essentially won 2 games that they “should not” have won based on the forecasted results.  San Francisco was just 2-4 and this poor performance hurt their playoff chances by nearly -16 points and again, this benefits Arizona and early season surprise, San Diego (5-1 with a +7.6 percent improvement).

At first glance, the NL East showed a somewhat bizarre result.  The Mets were 6-1, but barely saw any increase in playoff probability.  Meanwhile the Washington Nationals were 4-3, but saw their playoff chances improve by +6.1 percentage points.  The reason why the Mets are not seeing the benefits of a good week is they are still averaging under 76 wins per season simulation and they are still outside the range of legit playoff contenders.  The Mets are just 10-9 despite playing 13 of 19 games at home.  They have yet to win a series over a team that is over .500 this season.  While the Nationals also have played 13 of 19 at home, they did take 2 of 3 from the Mets in NY, 2 of 3 from Milwaukee, 2 of 3 from the Dodgers and 3 of 4 from Colorado.  They are just 2 and 4 against Philadelphia, but against the rest of the league the Nationals have been quite impressive.

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

WEEK 3 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

CHANCE

TEAM

19-Apr

26-Apr

% DIFF

WIN DIV

Chicago Cubs

20.6%

40.5%

19.9%

16.8%

Arizona Diamondbacks

16.0%

24.5%

8.5%

19.0%

San Diego Padres

17.5%

25.1%

7.6%

19.7%

Washington Nationals

7.8%

13.9%

6.1%

9.3%

St. Louis Cardinals

84.2%

87.4%

3.2%

75.6%

Los Angeles Dodgers

20.7%

23.5%

2.8%

18.1%

Houston Astros

0.8%

2.4%

1.6%

0.6%

Philadelphia Phillies

72.5%

73.7%

1.2%

69.5%

New York Mets

3.0%

3.1%

0.1%

2.0%

Colorado Rockies

25.5%

24.4%

-1.1%

18.7%

Pittsburgh Pirates

2.3%

0.4%

-1.9%

0.1%

Cincinnati Reds

3.5%

1.5%

-2.0%

0.4%

Milwaukee Brewers

26.9%

20.4%

-6.5%

6.5%

Florida Marlins

20.6%

11.7%

-8.9%

7.8%

Atlanta Braves

31.6%

16.8%

-14.8%

11.4%

San Francisco Giants

46.6%

30.9%

-15.7%

24.6%

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