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Predicting the Nationals playoff chances with Accuscore 5/17

As we will do each monday throughout the season, we will today take a look at Accuscore’s playoff forecaster to see how the previous weeks games influenced the division’s playoff race. The Nationals hurt their chances to make the playoffs last week as after the club dropped their last three games in a row. With this their projected playoff chances dropped from 23.8% to 18.8%. Disappointingly, their chance to win the division fell from 10.5% to 5.4% as the Phillies continue to play great baseball.

The Nationals are projected to finish the season with an 84-78 record.

Stephen Oh breaks down the National League:

While the AL was marked by its lack of playoff shifts, the NL is marked by a major shift of 10+ percentage points (positively and negatively) for 8 teams and only two teams shifted by less than 2 percentage points.  The Dodgers continue stay hot and after an undefeated week their playoff chances have skyrocketed by +32 points.  While the Giants were a decent 3-3 they still lose over 25 points because they were swept by

division leader San Diego at home, instead of taking 2 of 3 as the odds would expect.  The Padres were not able to capitalize on this sweep because they were in turn swept by the Dodgers.  The Rockies also had a big 4-2 week and wins over Washington are no longer considered easy wins but rather quality wins.

The Reds also had a great 5-1 week with an impressive series vs the Cardinals.  The Reds may have been home underdogs in these games but they won 2 of 3 and saw their playoff chances jump 25 points, primarily at the expense of the Cardinals who plummeted over 25 percentage points.

The Atlanta Braves were 5-1 but only saw a minor +2.4 percentage point improvement. They were expected to go 4-2 this week so a 5-1 week is only +1 better than expected.  They are still 5.5 games back.  The Phillies and Marlins were our pre-season picks to lead the NL East and the Mets 1-6 week have brought them back down to earth with a -6 point drop.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

WEEK 6 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

10-May

17-May

% DIFF

WIN DIV

Los Angeles Dodgers

9.3%

41.7%

32.4%

31.4%

Cincinnati Reds

8.4%

33.7%

25.3%

19.4%

Florida Marlins

7.7%

18.3%

10.6%

6.5%

Colorado Rockies

12.6%

23.0%

10.4%

15.8%

Philadelphia Phillies

88.4%

92.1%

3.7%

86.6%

Atlanta Braves

1.8%

4.2%

2.4%

1.1%

Houston Astros

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates

0.3%

0.1%

-0.2%

0.0%

San Diego Padres

19.0%

16.1%

-2.9%

10.2%

Washington Nationals

23.8%

18.8%

-5.0%

5.4%

New York Mets

7.2%

1.2%

-6.0%

0.4%

Chicago Cubs

16.5%

9.9%

-6.6%

5.4%

Milwaukee Brewers

15.9%

4.8%

-11.1%

2.7%

Arizona Diamondbacks

20.3%

7.4%

-12.9%

4.6%

St. Louis Cardinals

94.9%

80.5%

-14.4%

72.5%

San Francisco Giants

73.8%

48.2%

-25.6%

38.1%

 

 

 

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