Predicting the Nationals Playoff Chances with Accuscore 6/28

As we do each week of the season with the help of Accuscore, it is time to see how last weeks games impacted the division playoff race. Not suprisingly, Atlanta chances took the biggest hit by going 2-4 in their games against the White Sox and Tigers, where the rejuvinated Phillies and their star shortstop Jimmy Rollins bumped up their chances 21.1%. Despite getting swept by the Orioles, the Nationals only saw their percentage drop -2.6%, but expect that to get lower in the coming weeks as they will face tougher opponents in July. Sloppy play in recent weeks has made Washington look like a little league team at times, and it cost them at least two games against their close rivals.


Stephen Oh on the NL EAST:

The Phillies got a real gift when they got to play their road games vs Toronto at home.  Their 5-1 week was timed perfectly with 2-4 weeks from a key NL East competitor, Atlanta, and two key Wild Card competitors, the Dodgers and Giants.  The combined winning percentage of the Phillies’ remaining opponents is significantly lower than their opponents to date and AccuScore expects Philadelphia to close the 2.5 game gap in the NL East over the next month and eventually take the division.  The Mets also had a good +8.7 percentage point improvement, but with 5 more road games than home games this season their remaining schedule is not as favorable as the Phillies’ remaining schedule.