Predicting the Nationals playoff chances with Accuscore

-transAs we will do each monday throughout the season, we will today take a look at Accuscore’s playoff forecaster to see how the previous weeks games influenced the divisions playoff race. Despite the Nationals breaking even with a 3-3 record on the week, after first taking two of three from Chicago and then dropping two of three to Florida, Washington’s playoff chances dropped 3.4% from 13.9%-10.5%. The computer also shrunk the Nationals predicted chances of winning the division from 9.3% to 6.3%.

Around the division, Accuscore interestingly did not like the Mets very much despite them going 4-2 on the week. Stephen Oh explains:

“The team that AccuScore’s computers continue to disrespect are the New York Mets. They had a 4-2 week, but like last week their record vs winning teams and on the road continues to be sub-par. Until the Mets start winning a series or two vs a team like Philadelphia, St. Louis or even Florida on the road, they will continue to be stuck at the under 10 percent in playoff percentage club. The Mets did see a +5 percent improvement (4th best in the NL) and this represented a 2.5X increase in playoff percentage from last week.”

Accuscore’s NL Playoff Forecaster

NATIONAL LEAGUE

WEEK 4 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

26-Apr

3-May

% DIFF

WIN DIV

San Francisco Giants

30.9%

48.4%

17.5%

40.1%

St. Louis Cardinals

87.4%

97.7%

10.3%

91.9%

Florida Marlins

11.7%

18.9%

7.2%

12.5%

New York Mets

3.1%

8.1%

5.0%

5.0%

Philadelphia Phillies

73.7%

74.8%

1.1%

69.4%

Cincinnati Reds

1.5%

2.0%

0.5%

0.1%

Chicago Cubs

40.5%

41.0%

0.5%

7.3%

Los Angeles Dodgers

23.5%

23.1%

-0.4%

16.9%

Pittsburgh Pirates

0.4%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

Arizona Diamondbacks

24.5%

23.7%

-0.8%

18.0%

Houston Astros

2.4%

0.2%

-2.2%

0.0%

Washington Nationals

13.9%

10.5%

-3.4%

6.3%

San Diego Padres

25.1%

19.4%

-5.7%

14.5%

Atlanta Braves

16.8%

10.7%

-6.1%

6.8%

Colorado Rockies

24.4%

15.0%

-9.4%

10.5%

Milwaukee Brewers

20.4%

6.5%

-13.9%

0.6%

 

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