Nationals Top 10 Prospects - The Hardball Times E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Thursday, 07 January 2010 12:42

thtba10The Hardball Times, which ranks up there with my favorite baseball sites on the net, released their version of the Washington Nationals top 10 prospects. Here they are:

 

"1. Stephen Strasburg: Perhaps the best college pitcher of all time, Strasburg brings unheralded hype and ability to a Washington organization desperate for a shot in the arm. He is the best pitching prospect in baseball and will challenge Atlanta's Jason Heyward as my preseason No. 1 prospect in baseball.

2. Derek Norris: Despite his high strikeout rate, Norris has the bat of a future All-Star. The most unheralded aspect of his season was the 90 walks he drew in 437 at-bats. His defense is on track for the majors, but needs some work. If he repeats his performance in 2010, we may be looking at a top-10 prospect in all of baseball. But he does need to do it again if he is going to win me over.

3. Danny Espinosa: Despite some holes in his swing, Espinosa has a bit of everything you look for in a shortstop, including above-average power and the glove to match.

4. Christopher Marrero: Marrero has a nice bat, but nothing about it sticks out, especially as a first baseman. He is still young, and with further progression Washington could have a major league asset at first base.

5. Drew Storen: I was surprised to see Storen go as high as he did in the 2009 draft, but his first 37 minor league innings opened my eyes. There is even talk that Washington may turn him into a starter, which would raise his value immensely, but his change-up needs refinement if that is going to happen. There is a lot to like. More than I initially thought.

6. Ian Desmond: Desmond has some workable power and base-stealing ability, but neither skill be will anything more than average in the majors. His defense is his best strength, and his average bat will make sure he has a long, solid career as a major league shortstop.

7. Eury Perez: Perez has flashed his potential at every stop he has made. His bat seems very advanced for his age, his speed will be a weapon, and he has even shown some unexpected power.

8. Destin Hood: With his raw tools, Hood was one of my favorite players selected in the second round of the 2008 draft. Not much has materialized as of yet, which is concerning for me, but he is very young.

9. Michael Burgess: Burgess has plus power, but not much else to go with it. His strikeout rate is troublesome and may be his downfall. Future refinement could be in the works, so it's not time to give up on him yet.

10. Marcos Frias: Scouting reports are tough to come by on Frias, but his numbers are hard to ignore, forcing my bullish outlook. Based off of the brief video and scouting reports I have on him, I am going to take a shot in the dark on a young man with a live arm."

Thoughts:

Danny Espinosa is crawling up everyone's prospect board. I don't know if I'm sold on him yet, as he is 22 and in Single-A, but he does come from a good crop and has shown a solid glove and good power. Could be a valuable addition in two years or so if Desmond doesn't pan out.

I find it interesting that people are still talking about making Storen a starter. I thought it was pretty clear he was the closer of the future.

 

 
For Matt Capps, being fat works E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Monday, 04 January 2010 15:06

ph_448165Capps participated in a great phone interview with Chico Harlan from the Nationals Journal. One of the most interesting parts of the interview was when Chico and Matt discussed Capps playing weight:

"Q: I read that last year you reported to spring training about 15 pounds lighter than in 2008, and you were thinking that would spell good things in terms of velocity and endurance. Numbers aside, how did that work for you?

Well, I felt good throughout the year. I think with me it's a fine line. I've done a lot of soul-searching with my weight and what kind of shape I'm in. I mean, I'm a big guy. I'm never going to be 205 pounds. But I don't need to be 265 either. If I'm between 245 and 250 I think that's when I'm at my best, just looking back over the last few years. I'm also the person, I can step on the scale today and be 252 and tomorrow be 243. My weight jumps up and down real quick, and I don't know what the cause is. But I try not to put too much emphasis on weight. A lot of it goes on how I feel. I've had two pretty rough years in my career, one in 2004 and one last year. And the one common denominator in those two years is that I came into camp in unbelievable shape.

 
Jim Bowden vs. Mike Rizzo E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Sunday, 03 January 2010 23:23

snapshot_2010-01-03_23-21-18jbmr

MLB Trade Rumors has been compiling General Manager History for each team in the majors, chronicling every move each General Manager has made. Today they published the National League General Managers. Looking at the spreadsheet comparing the two, it's amazing the amount of success Rizzo has had compared to Bowden, despite Jim's 15 years of experience. Lets take a look. (Note: Rizzo was in charge of the draft for the Diamondbacks from 2000-2006)

Top Draft Picks Bowden (1993-2008)

Adam Dunn 
Ryan Zimmerman 
Joey Votto
Jordan Zimmermann    
Aaron Boone

Top Draft Picks Rizzo (2000-06, 09)

Brandon Webb
Justin Upton
Mark Reynolds 
Stephen Strasburg
Carlos Quentin

Dunn, Votto, and Zimmerman have all had major league success, however it is arguable that Webb, Upton, and Reynolds have had equal if not greater success. Webb has won a Cy Young, Reynolds was second in the National League in home runs this seas

 
Joel Hanrahan was flat out silly for Pittsburgh in 2009. Did we give up too early? E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Sunday, 03 January 2010 15:52

joel-hanrahan-suishamWhile working on a different post in which I am looking into the merits of having a true closer competition in Washington (will be posted later), I decided to look up a name which I tried to block out of my mind after we traded him last summer, Joel Hanrahan. Forgetting Hanrahan was an easy thing to do. As our closer in 2009 he blew five saves in 10 chances, had a .342 BAA, and a 7.71 ERA.

This is why I was so shocked to see the Hanrahan's line in Pittsburgh after we had traded him:

2009 PIT: 31.1 IP, 7HLD, .204 BAA, 1.72 ERA

Hanrahan struggled in his first games for Pittsburgh as well, giving up three earned runs in his first three appearances. However his post all-star break numbers were phenomenal, which could lead some to believe that his failure in Washington was likely a result of a mental block or a slight glitch that needed to be corrected in his approach.

2009 Second Half: 28.0 IP, 7 HLD, .182 BAA, 0.96 ERA.

Is it possible Hanrahan actually was talented after all? Did we give up too quickly on him?

Both points are debatable. Hanrahan's second half was a small sample size that when combined with his first half balanced his 2009 total to match his career averages.

2009 Total: 4.78 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 10.13 K/9, 4.78 BB/9
Career Avg: 4.74 ERA, 1.60 WHIP,  9.39 K/9, 5.15 BB/9

It could just be a case of extreme streakiness on Hanrahan's part that caused him to have such a poor first, and then great second half. Hanrahan certainly showed in the second half that he has the ability to get MLB batters out, but at the age of 28, he had been given plenty of chances in Washington to prove consistent productivity. Furthermore, it seemed that any hope of being productive in a Washington uniform had been lost. Hanrahan was in his head, not on the mound. He needed a change of scenery.

The Nationals also got Nyjer Morgan out of the deal, who in the long run is much more valuable than Hanrahan.

 
News from Nats Town: Derek Norris named top hitter in Single-A Baseball E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Saturday, 02 January 2010 17:20

022508-207_derek_norris_cJonathon Mayo of MLB.com reports that Nationals prospect Derek Norris was named the Top Class-A hitter by MiLBY. The MILBY award for "Best Hitter annually" rewards the top hitter in each division of minor league baseball.

 

"It's a mental grind," the 20-year-old Norris said. "If you have an at-bat where you think you should've done better, you have to shut it out and focus on your pitching staff. If you're not out there supporting your pitchers, you're not going to win too many ballgames. If you're going to be a good Major League player, you have to be an all-around player."

It certainly seemed like Norris was able to let at-bats go quickly. Besides, there weren't too many to dwell on. Norris was a mid- and postseason All-Star as well as being named the South Atlantic League's Most Outstanding Major League Prospect. That's because he finished second in home runs with 23 and fourth in RBIs with 84. He was second in total bases (224) and fifth in slugging percentage (.513). As impressive as all of those numbers are, the ones that stand out the most are those not typical for his age at this level: 90 walks and a league-leading .413 on-base percentage.

"He's a professional hitter, a very advanced young hitter with regard to approach and plate discipline," Nationals farm director Doug Harris said. "He knows his swing. You don't know where his power will go. He'll use the whole field and take what the pitcher gives him. You don't see that from a young hitter."

Analysis:

Derek Norris went from a good prospect in 2008, to a great one in 2009. The Washington Nationals have been careful with his development, giving the young 20-year-old an opportunity to grow at each level, a privilege which is often awarded to young catchers. Norris has responded very well, showing unique maturity in his plate patience, and strong power from the right side.

As stated above, Norris smacked 23 home runs last year and drove in 84. He lead the league in On-Base percentage at .413 and slugged an impressive .513. For Norris, 2009 was his third year of professional baseball. After putting up rough numbers as an 18 year old in rookie-ball in 2007, he bounced back in 2008 at Short Season Vermont batting .278/.444/.463.

In 2009 the slugging catcher seamlessly made the transition from shorts seaon Vermont to A Hagerstown. While Norris's BB% dropped form 21.7 in 2008 to 17.1% in 2009, and his K% rose from 24.7% to 26.5% his Isolated power jumped from 1.85 in 2008 to .227 in 2009. His wOBA rose slightly from .413 to .417 and his wRC jumped from 56.0 to 101.6.

While the Nationals continue to develop Norris at the Catching position, it may make more sense to try and have him learn new positions in 2010. Washington is currently grooming the future of the catching position for current backstop Jesus Flores. Flores, 25, has shown strong defensive ability in his big league experience so far, and is likely to stay put as the back stop. The Nationals even brought in future hall-of-fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez to mentor Flores defensively. The Nationals are also likely to draft potential filled catcher Bryce Harper with their number one overall pick in 2010. While it's unclear if Harper will be a catcher in the majors, his athletic potential presence leads one to believe that the future of the catching position is secure.

The Nationals could try to change Norris to a first-baseman and have him compete for the future spot at that position with Chris Marrero. Marrero was once considered the top bat in the Nationals farm system, but after being stuck at High-A Potomac for three seasons, Norris looks like he may eclipse the former first round pick.

 

 
Making The Nats Blog better in 2010, what can we do? E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Friday, 01 January 2010 18:43

We need your help

snapshot_2010-01-01_22-17-31

The Nats Blog took great strides in 2009. We started as a small blog on blogger and grew to a big blog averaging hundreds of hits a day. We hope to grow and make 2010 a banner year. Among our goals in 2010 are:

-Improved dedication statistical analysis

-More consistent reporting

-More guest writers and new staff writers

-New weekly features such as This Week in Baseball and The Prospect Report

-More reader interaction and collaboration opportunities

While these are idea's I have thought of over the last several months, what I would really like is to know WHAT YOU BELIEVE WE COULD DO TO IMPROVE THE NATS BLOG? This is really important to me and I feel it could really help the blog grow. So please in the comments section below please leave a little message telling us what you like about The Nats Blog and what you would like to see to help it grow.

Thank you for your readership,

Will Yoder

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Riggleman talks with Baseball Prospectus E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Sunday, 27 December 2009 14:57

062409-263_jim_rigglemanBaseball Prospectus sat down with Nationals manager Jim Riggleman as a post holiday treat, and lucky for us (well you, I have a subscription), it's all free content. Riggleman spoke on a few topics, including his baseball philosophies. It seems like BP cautiously gives him the thumbs up.

Here are a few excerpts:

BP: How similar are you to Manny Acta?

JR: You know, I think that Manny and I have a lot of similar traits, or qualities, about how we manage a ball game. We’re both somewhat old-school guys, but I think we both like to feel that we’re current enough with today’s world, and today’s player, to… again, I’ll use the word "adapt," to what makes players tick, and so forth. But I think that maybe the thing that we both have in common, more than anything, is respect for the game. Manny has a tremendous respect for the game, as I do, in terms of how you play the game, and how hard you play the game, and your respect for the fans, for the umpires, for ownership. There’s a protocol there that Manny really respects, and I’m very much with him on that.

BP: From what you’ve seen of him, where is Ian Desmond defensively?

JR: I only saw him in September, but he was really good. And Tim Foli managed him, so I talked to Tim, who made it very clear that this is a special player. He’s got some growing to do yet in terms of the routine play, and that idea has been imbedded into his head. But he’s a good player; he can make all the plays.

BP: What did Nyjer Morgan bring to the team last summer?

JR: He added… I don’t even know where to start. He added so much. He added energy, enthusiasm, he added on-base percentage, he created chaos on the bases, and he also played such a great center field that he changed the dynamic of our ballclub.

BP: Stephen Strasburg is the most highly regarded pitcher to come around in some time, and if he were to suffer a career-threatening arm injury under your watch, you would likely go down in history—fairly or not—as "the manager who broke the best young pitcher since sliced bread was invented." Does that concern you?

JR: I was there with Kerry Wood when he went down, you know. I was talking to some people about this yesterday, and so many pitchers have been hurt. We had a pitcher this past year, Jordan Zimmermann—an outstanding young pitcher with a great arm—and Jordan was monitored as closely as any pitcher could be monitored. His pitch count was limited, his innings were limited, he was not going to be allowed to pitch in September; we weren’t going to let him get that many innings. And that ligament blew out. So, sometimes it’s just unavoidable. Guys are just going to…a shoulder, or an elbow, is just going to blow out. Something is going to happen. Sometimes it’s unavoidable. In the case of Stephen Strasburg, we will do what we did with Jordan Zimmermann. We’ll be extremely careful, and as careful as we can be, there is no guarantee. That’s the thing where the ownership has really shown great courage in making this kind of financial commitment to a pitcher, because he clearly was the best in the nation, but there is nothing saying that he isn’t going to get hurt. We can try to minimize the risk, but we minimized the risk on Jordan Zimmermann, and he got hurt.

BP: Injury risk aside, how do Wood and Strasburg compare?

JR: They’re probably very similar. I would say that Kerry, at that point in his career, probably his mechanics were not as solid as Strasburg’s mechanics are, in terms of the stress you put on your arm. But in terms of the ability to throw the ball, the way the ball comes out of their hands, is very similar.

There is a lot more great stuff here, check it out.

 
According to Yahoo! Sports, Willie Harris is our starting centerfielder E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Sunday, 27 December 2009 09:52
snapshot_2009-12-27_09-50-16

According to the depth chart on Yahoo! Sports, Willie Harris is supposed to be our starting center fielder where Nyjer Morgan is slated to be the back up left fielder. I think they're a little confused.

Splitting time between playing centerfield in Washington, and both left and centerfield in Pittsburgh, Morgan was the second most valuable fielder in baseball registering 27.8 runs above average. First was Seattle Mariners outfielder, and former Cleveland Indian prospect Franklin Gutierrez (29.1), and third was Rays shortstop Ben Zobrist. (26.4).  Nationals third-baseman Ryan Zimmerman finished fifth with 18.1 runs above average.

 
Sports Media Legend George Michael Passes at 70 E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Thursday, 24 December 2009 12:39

michael-topper

During my first week of college freshman year at Ohio Wesleyan I sat in the common room of my suite with my three roommates. One of my roommates, Mark, from Ohio, was flipping through the channels late one night until Colin, from Massachusetts, stopped him.

"Wait, go back," Colin said. "There, it's The Sports Machine."

I rubbed my eyes and gave it a double-look. But my eyes didn't deceive me, still in 2005, Michael was being syndicated across the country. I was hundreds of miles away from Washington, and there on my T.V. was a little bit of home, George Michael's infectious personality and electric broadcast. As we sat and kindly mocked his old school approach, we appreciated the importance of his career, and for the first time we all bonded and grew a little bit closer.

For me, that will always be my memory of George Michael. For countless others it will be something similar, whether it be sitting on their father's lap watching The Sports Machine when they were a boy, or learning something new when watching his weekly weekend sports panels. Michael's influence spread far and wide over his illustrious career, and impacted all of us in some sort of way.

One can't help but notice how that influence spread to the creators of ESPN. The Sports Machine simply showed the highlights, without any overbearing commentary, and brought sports video to the masses across the country. Nearly 30 years after his first broadcast, ESPN makes it's living off of Sports Center, which revolves around highlights from across the Nation with energetic commentary from its personable hosts. Sound familiar?

In the end, however, Michael's impact on sports broadcasting fails in comparison to the impact of his character. In 2006 Michael's contract was up for renewal. Due to station-wide budget cuts Michael was offered a raise, but as a result others in the sports department would be laid off. In the end the legend chose to resign in order to spare the jobs of others. Character over money, integrity over career.

Michael signed off after 27 years in 2007 with these parting words:

"I close every show every Sunday by saying 'Thank you for letting us be a part of your weekend.' Well tonight, for the final time, we say, 'Thank you. Thank you for letting us be a part of your life'. From everyone at the Sports Machine, have a great weekend everybody. We hope to see you somewhere down the road of life. Thank you."

Thank you, George, for everything you have done for this aspiring sports writer. We'll see you sometime down the road...

 

 
It's official, Nationals sign Matt Capps to one-year deal E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Thursday, 24 December 2009 01:45
ap080903028647

MLB.COM's Bill Ladson tweeted tonight at 1:16 that the Washington Nationals and former Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps have agreed to a one-year deal. The deal will put Capps in a position to compete for, and likely claim Washington's closing role in spring training.

Capps was courted by as many as 10 teams after being non-tendered by Pittsburgh this winter, but narrowed the field down to the Cubs and the Nationals on Dec. 17. From there the righty had to decide whether he wanted to be a closer for Washington, or a set-up man in Chicago. In the end, Capps wanted to be a closer.

"[I liked the Nationals because of] the way Mr. Rizzo has treated me throughout this whole process," Capps told Bill Ladson. "The Nationals organization has been first class. They expressed their interest from Day One -- the moment I was non-tendered. They wanted me to become a Washington National. That means a lot."

A one-year deal represents a perfect opportunity for the Nationals as it gives Capps a chance to re-prove himself as a closer, and the Nationals the opportunity to 'rent-a-closer' until last years first round draft pick, Drew Storen, is ready to take over the role. Capps will be able to rebuild value for 2011 free-agency, when he will be only 27, and the Nationals can exploit that value to their benefit. A true win-win.

Capps, 26, is coming off the worst year of his career after posting a 5.80 ERA, 4.90 FIP, and a 2.71 K/BB on the way to saving 27 games. While Capps performed poorly in 2009, his 2006-08 was stellar. Capps posted ERA's of 3.79, 2.28,  and 3.02 while saving 18, 21, and 27 games for the lowly Pirates. While Capps 2009 performance was a concern for many teams, his .340 BABIP and his steady velocity have led many to think that maybe he just got unlucky, and just needs to get his accuracy under control.

 
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