Dusty Baker is a genius. Move Ryan Zimmerman out of the clean-up spot and slot Jayson Werth in the two hole and the Nats are a powerhouse again! All is well in the District…
It is hard to convey tone using the written word, so I hope you can tell this is sarcastic. The bottom line is the maximizing your line-up really doesn’t add or subtract too much to your win-loss record. As long as the better guys bat first, you should be good to go.
But the cat is out of the bag. Dusty started the trend and, while I don’t think the lineup is all that important, it is fun to talk about it and it sparks a lot — a lot — of debate.
I also hope to avoid what F.P. Santagelo mentioned multiple times: the cliché blogger trying to manage from the armchair. This lineup has some thought rooted in a book, funnily enough, called The Book. The Book is an advanced sabermetrics book that uses wOBA and run expectancies to compare traditional thought patterns against statistical analysis. You can find The Book website here, but Beyond the Box Score has a layman’s breakdown that I used for much of this article.
Here we go! Let’s have some fun!
1. Jayson Werth
For reasons I cannot explain, Werth is better at the top of the order. We saw it in 2012. We saw it for a bit in 2014. He mentioned he feels more comfortable and gets into the flow of the game more with each plate appearance. He may not seem like a typical lead-off guy, but without a traditional plate-setter (I will deal with you later, Ben Revere) he has pretty decent career stats enviable for the top spot. He has a decent OBP and is a savvy base stealer. I also think he benefits by hitting in front of Bryce Harper, and in my line up, he will.
2. Bryce Harper
The Book tells us the most important positions in a batting order are 1, 2, and 4. Using that model, adapted a bit for the unique situation here in Washington with only three players carrying the load, Bryce fits best here. True, he will have fewer opportunities to drive in runs, but this position allows him to take advantage of his high OBP and lets him see more PAs. It is not bucking the norm too much to set our lineup like this as AL MVP Josh Donaldson bats second, as does Mike Trout on occasion.
3. Ryan Zimmerman
This may seem like the most important spot; however, often times the 3-hole batter is up with two outs and nobody on, and the fifth and sixth hitters see more runners on than this position. This really could be either Anthony Rendon or Zimmerman. I put Zimmerman here as I think Rendon will break out of his slump quicker and be in a better position to drive in more runs.
4. Daniel Murphy.
It has got to be Murph at the four hole. Really, you could put Harper here since he is a total hitter who can hit anywhere, but I will take Daniel “Hits” Murphy in a critical spot to drive in runs. He won’t see as many pitches here and won’t be able to protect Harper, but I think his value later down the order outweighs this concern.
5. Wilson Ramos
I guess it is easier to hit if you can see the baseball. Ramos is having a career year so far and this position in the order sees a lot of runners on the bases for a slugging Buffalo to drive in. I would like to have a guy a bit faster in this position, but I will take what I can get.
6. Anthony Rendon
Again, I could flip a coin between Rendon and Zimmerman but the hope is at six Rendon will break out of his slump and drive in a ton of runs in the six hole.
7. Danny Espinosa
Danny, I tried. I tried to be your voice of confidence among the #freeTrea movement. Although, as we illuminated here at The Nats Blog, Trea Turner probably won’t help that much, I can see Espinosa’s time may be limited. He does have to bat somewhere, so he is slotted at seventh in my lineup.
8. Pitcher’s spot
The traditional thought is to have your worst position player bat here and the pitcher bat ninth. I think the Nats have the perfect situation to buck this trend right now. First, their pitchers all hit pretty well. Stephen Strasburg has a Silver Slugger and each can hold their own. Second, it leads well into a Billy Hamilton situation at the bottom of the order where we can put Ben Revere.
9. Ben Revere
A speedy guy that has a low OPB should go down here. Instead of sacrificing outs at the top of the order (and I mean a lot of outs), Revere should go down here as a “second” lead-off hitter. I get regression to the mean and Revere hasn’t really had a Spring Training, but until he comes around he is absolutely killing the Nats at the top of the order (two recent hits notwithstanding) He can work out the bugs with one or two less plate appearances a game in high-leverage situations.
Well, wasn’t that fun!
In all seriousness, Dusty Baker did the right thing by mixing up the lineup. Baseball games are not played by robots. While Revere batting first may be a terrible idea based on the stats so far this season, showing confidence in your players goes a long way. That is one of the many reasons Dusty has been great for this team.
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