Court Swift has already written about the importance of the head-to-head matchup against the Mets this year. I couldn’t agree more with this sentiment, considering all the facts before us. I want to go further, however, and contend that all things being equal, the single biggest factor in determining the division race this year will be Daniel Murphy.
The Nationals will win the division in 2017 if Murphy stays healthy because of what he will do to the Mets. Friday night, Murphy was intentionally walked in the 11th inning and was an integral part of what would eventually become a bases-loaded walk to Trea Turner that proved to be the difference in the Nats’ win. To me this screamed one thing: the Mets are scared of Daniel Murphy.
This fear is certainly well earned, as Murphy has picked up right where he left off last season tearing the cover off the ball at every opportunity. No team is more familiar with Murphy’s 2016 success than the Mets. They were, after all, the team that believed his 2015 playoff success was an anomaly and allowed him to make his way to Washington. They were also the team that Murphy tortured the most incessantly in his ridiculous 2016 campaign.
In 2016 against the Mets, Murphy held a .413 batting average and a staggering 1.218 OPS while hitting seven home runs and striking out only nine times. The numbers are impressive, but the feeling you got when Murphy walked up to the plate against his former team last year was even more fun. It was a feeling of inevitability. Nats fans got gleeful during his at bats, and the entire Mets organization just seemed helpless against him.
At some point midseason, I had to go and look the stats up because I was positive Murphy had homered every time he saw a Mets pitcher. It turns out I was wrong — albeit not by much.
My theory is not totally unfounded either. Murphy has started 2017 hitting .323 with a .885 OPS, which has been excellent, if not quite up to his 2016 totals (.347 and .985 respectively). Last year I spent almost the entire season predicting a regression for Murphy, but the sample size is significant enough now that I think we can safely say this is just who he is.
In other words, book it now people. Daniel Murphy is a Met killer and will win the NL East for DC this year.
Tags: Daniel Murphy, Mets, Nationals, Nats, New York Mets, Washington Nationals
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