It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. It was a … wait, this isn’t remedial English Lit, this is the tale of two hitters. Two outstanding left-handed hitters for the Washington Nationals that are having similarly opposite seasons. This is a case study in how the Baseball Gods, especially the BABIP Gods — a particularly finicky lot — can make or break your season.
Daniel Murphy’s Hitting Evolution
Although FP won’t be successful in making Daniel “Hits” Murphy happen, give him credit for trying because the sentiment stands. Murphy has been the best and most consistent hitter on the Nationals this far in the 2016 season. In fact, he’s been one of the best and most consistent hitters in all of baseball. He’s tied for the seventh-highest WAR in the majors according to FanGraphs. His .394 batting average is the highest in the league by over 30 points. Only 13 players in the MLB have struck out a lower rate than Murphy. He’s carried the offensive load for the Nationals for most of the season even though no one predicted such big things out of the former Met.
Off-Field Recap: A Month of Kit Swapping, Catch Having, and Board Game Cheating
The Nationals have been busy this last month: sweeping the Cardinals for the first time since 2007, making history with a 20-strikeout complete game, and winning a series against division rival New York Mets. All this, and the Nationals still found time to check out the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum and force Dan Kolko to wear pink sunglasses.
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We’re Back (Mostly)
First of all, thank you all for your patience while we recovered from a completely unexpected shutdown from our former hosting service. We’ve moved to a new provider, and we hope to have more speed and stability from our site while we continue to provide the best content that we can. (I’m just as excited to have Mina’s posts back as you all are.)
Over the coming weeks and months, you will continue to notice many changes here. This design and layout is a work-in-progress. We wanted to get a site working as quickly as possible so we could start posting stuff here again rather than on Facebook, and we acknowledge it needs aesthetic improvements. We’ll get there. We promise.
You’ll also notice that our archives are not here. Luckily, despite our previous hosting provider taking us down without warning, we do still have the old content. We will begin to restore the old content in the months ahead, and it will be a long and tedious process to do so.
So for now: we’re back. We hope to be on more stable ground now that we’re running our own infrastructure, and we thank you again for being patient and sticking with us. We’re glad to be back.
Harvey Struggles Against Nats Again
Thanks to an intradivision rivalry and a shared Tommy John history, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg will be forever linked. Since Matt Harvey fancies himself as the Dark Knight, Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice dictates that Stephen Strasburg is Superman. Which, sidebar, is that a good thing? I never saw it so I don’t even know it was it really a rivalry. I’m assuming Batman and Superman just end up as buddies at the end so they can make their Justice League sequel(s)? Is that why it sucked? Should really have done my research before writing this piece, huh? Anyways, back on the field, it was Superman/Strasburg who took round two of the 2016 Harvey v. Strasburg matchup Tuesday night.
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Nats’ Bullpen Leads the Way
As their bats have struggled to warm up in the early going, the Nationals have been buoyed by their pitching. A team ERA of 2.88, the second best in baseball behind the Cubs, has lifted the Nats to first place in the NL East (though that lead sits at just a half game after Monday’s loss to the Mets).
In a surprising show of equity, both the relievers and starters rank second in ERA. But it is the relief corps that has stolen the show recently. Since May 9th, the bullpen has ceded just two runs in 36 1/3 innings, good for a 0.50 ERA. And after four scoreless in relief of Gio Gonzalez tonight, it has not allowed a run in the past eight games, an impressive 23 1/3-inning streak that is approaching the equivalent of three consecutive shutouts. During that span, the relievers have allowed 16 hits and walked seven while striking out 26.
Obviously, such a feat is a collective effort, but let’s look at each of the individual pitchers and see what their contribution to the whole has been. Below, I’ll list each of the seven pitchers and their May statline.
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#PitchersWhoRake, Nats Edition
#PitchersWhoRake are really popular around The Nats Blog. Who doesn’t love it when a Nationals’ pitcher comes through with a base knock? So far in 2016, Nats’ pitchers have been raking their way to the fifth best offensive output from pitchers in the National League, prior to Max Scherzer’s 0-2 with a walk day in the win versus the Marlins on Sunday.
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What Does Trea Turner’s BABIP Tell Us?
When thinking about major leaguers, we consider a high BABIP an indicator of unsustainable performance. A guy running a .400 BABIP is sure to come back to earth (except maybe Daniel Murphy), and most everyone should be around .300.
It would follow logically that the same should be true for the minor leagues. Even if you want to argue that minor league defenses or pitchers would contribute to higher minor league BABIPs, a surprisingly relevant Baseball Prospectus article (from 2005!) shows that while BABIP is significantly higher in the very low minors, the effect is nearly gone at the highest levels of the minors: BABIP is .322 at AAA compared to .309 in the majors.
So what do we make of Trea Turner? You’ve surely heard of his offensive exploits in the minors: He’s a career .322/.385/.458 hitter in almost two full minor league seasons, with a .321/.386/.474 line at AAA Syracuse this year. With a bat like that, no wonder many want him to replace Danny Espinosa as the Nats’ starting shortstop.
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Looking at a New Batting Order for the Nats
Dusty Baker is a genius. Move Ryan Zimmerman out of the clean-up spot and slot Jayson Werth in the two hole and the Nats are a powerhouse again! All is well in the District…
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Trea Turner Will Not Save You
It wouldn’t be baseball if we didn’t spend our days worrying about something. The Nats may be tied for first place and seven games over .500, but a three game losing streak and run drought (prior to Wednesday night’s crooked number curly W) has folks stocking up on canned food and bottles of water.