The trade deadline is approaching. #Sources are going to be trending on Twitter soon. Jon Heyman knock-off Twitter handles are primed to break fake news stories. The hot stove hasn’t really gotten going yet, but already the Nationals have been named as potential suitors for a whole host of players. As a team in the playoff hunt, it’s natural for people to speculate about what upgrades Mike Rizzo might make to his roster. But the Nationals are a first-place team, so where exactly could Rizzo try to improve the ball club?
The goal of any trade would be to make this current roster better, obviously, but that’s harder to do than it sounds. Adding a big name player is great. That new player, though, takes the spot of someone already on the team. Not much of a mind blowing analysis, I know, but it’s important to keep in mind while surfing the trade block. Think of this in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Trade for a 4 WAR player. Great! That’s an exceptionally above average player. But if that 4 WAR player is replacing a 2 WAR player? That’s only 2 extra wins. On top of that, 4 WAR players are hard to find and, though I’m no economist, I’m fairly confident that the demand for those types of players usually means they are expensive to obtain. On the other hand, if a team has a player putting up a -1 WAR season and goes out and gets a 2 WAR player (essentially a league average major league caliber player), that’s a 3-win upgrade for cheap! Finding the right player to trade for is just as important as finding the right player to replace.
OK, sounds great in theory. How does this apply to the Nationals’ situation? So glad you asked. To identify the best places to upgrade, I’m going to start with WAR and take a similar approach to the method I used to identify players who over- and under-achieved. Instead of searching on a player-by-player level, the focus will instead be on a position by position level. The chart below shows the WAR by position for the Nationals versus the league average WAR for that position.
Not surprisingly, the Nationals look pretty good by this analysis. It’s pretty clear that the Nationals will not be searching for second baseman, for example. There are some areas where the Nationals have significantly underperformed the league, however, so let’s start there.
First base
Everybody loves Ryan Zimmerman (and Clint Robinson for that matter), but he’s been so bad this year that he has actually accrued negative value. Zimmerman’s currently rehabbing for a back injury, but it’s fair to wonder if the plantar fasciitis isn’t taking a bigger toll this year than he has let on. Clint has looked good, especially of late now that he has been getting more everyday playing time with Zimmerman on the DL. But first base is an easy position to fill via trade because the defensive demands of the position are limited. Jay Bruce of the Reds, for example, could fill in as extra outfield bat and play some at first base. Danny Valencia offers a right handed option to platoon with Robinson if Zimmerman can’t play everyday. Not that those are guys the Nationals will chase, necessarily, but they come to mind quickly and go to show how easy it would be to upgrade at first base. Pick your favorite hitter from a last place team. He can play first too! Plus, it wouldn’t take a big name to improve on the production out of the position so far this year.
Center field
Ben Revere is fun and Michael A. Taylor is fun. But they haven’t been able to hack it in CF this year. For the time being, Taylor is best suited as a fourth outfielder and defensive and baserunning specialist. Revere doesn’t bring much to the table if he’s not hitting .300, and he’s not hitting .300. There are several outfield options on the market, though finding someone who can handle centerfield on an everyday basis will tough, and expensive. Carlos Gonzalez, Melvin Upton, and Charlie Blackmon have seen their names in the rumor mill lately and would be significant upgrades over what Revere and Taylor have been able to do.
Pitching
The rest of the roster is pretty much league average (Jayson Werth in LF), above average (Anthony Rendon at third), or significantly above average (Daniel Murphy at second), so further position player acquisitions would just be to fill out the bench. That means it’s time to break out the “you can never have too much pitching” axiom. The Nationals have had tremendous starting pitching and the bullpen has actually been one of the best in the league, according to the numbers. Nevertheless, the Nationals have been linked to various starters and plenty of relievers and Nationals fans are itching for Andrew Miller. Rizzo loves adding to strengths, so bringing in another starter wouldn’t be that out there, but replacing Tanner Roark, who has proven himself as the #3 starter this year, would be tough to do. Adding one of those big name relievers will be expensive, and the bullpen as a whole has performed like one of the best in the bigs so far in 2016, so someone would have to get booted from the pen to make room. If Rizzo is looking to add a pitcher, starter or reliever, there are also in house options. Lucas Giolito is still one of the best pitching prospects in a generation and didn’t crash and burn in his brief cup of coffee in the big leagues. Reynaldo Lopez flashed brilliance in his debut, but clearly has some room to grow before he is a mainstay in the big league starting rotation. Should those outside options become too expensive, might the Nationals decide to go the David Price route and use Giolito or Lopez as a fireman reliever in September and into the playoffs? It would be a great way to continue their development and help the major league squad. It also wouldn’t require the Nats to part with any big name prospects.
Tags: Ben Revere, Clint Robinson, Michael Taylor, Mike Rizzo, Nationals, Nats, Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
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