It’s Never to Early to Worry about the Division Race

The Nationals have finished either 1st or 2nd in the NL East every year since 2012, winning in ’12, ’14, and ’16.

The Mets have finished either 1st or 2nd in the NL East every since 2014, winning in ’15.

Between them, that’s the last three division pennants and four of the last five. Considering talent, projections, and early season returns, it’s a reasonable assumption that one of these two will win again this year. Yesterday, the Nats and Mets began their season series with a game and a half separating them in (yep) first and second place in the NL East, respectively.

Last year the Nats had a five-game advantage over the Mets in their head-to-head meetings and won the division by eight games. In 2015, the Mets won 11 of the 19 match-ups, including two late season series sweeps, to win the division by seven games. As the two top projected teams in the division this year, winning the season series could be the key to winning the division — never mind how fun it is to beat the Mets.

The Nationals enter the series with the best record in the National League and the best offense in all of baseball. Pick a stat and the Nats probably lead the league. They’re first in AVG, OBP, and SLG. They’re first in wins above replacement, wOBA, and RE24. They lead the league in doubles, are second in runs, and place fifth in home runs. The four WAR they’ve already earned projects to be better than last year’s Cubs offense and equals the Oakland A’s entire 2016 season. In other words, they’re unworldly good right now, but a regression is coming.

The Mets lead the league in team pitching WAR with 2.6. The Nats’ starting pitching equals that mark, but the league’s worst bullpen* drags the team down to 9th overall. Sure, the bullpen is last in WAR, and you could argue that WAR is not the best stat by which to measure relief pitching. And you’d probably be right. But anytime you’re in the discussion for worst, it’s a problem. Of course, being 29th in relief HR/9 and 27th in RE24 does that argument few favors.

The Nats’ league-leading offense has made them the better team so far this season. It’s made them good enough to have the National League’s best record despite blowing a couple late leads. It’s important for the team to capitalize on being the best at hitting while they can. Banking a series win over the Mets wouldn’t hurt either, especially considering the injuries the Mets are dealing with.

Starting pitching should be a wash over the course of the season, especially considering the Mets and Nats were 1 and 2 last year in starting pitching WAR with only 0.2 wins separating them. They’re tied for first in WAR so far this season too.

Bullpens were a strength for both teams last year with the Mets being 2nd in relief pitching WAR and 13th in RE24, while the Nats were 6th in WAR but second in RE24. Both ‘pens have struggled to start this year, with the Mets struggling slightly less. We can expect to see both units improve over the course of the year, but who knows by how much. Right now, the Mets are treading water, while the Nats’ relief pitching is giving back a lot of the starting pitching gains primarily by giving up dingers — over 2 per nine innings so far.

The Mets bullpen hasn’t added much value this year, but at least they haven’t detracted from their stellar starting pitching like the Nats have. Any improvement from nightly-dumpster-fire to mildly-below-average would help offset a slight slow down on offense. A couple improved performances don’t prove that they’ve turned things around, but it’s a good start.

Trea Turner is off the DL and the early returns on the Nats’ bullpen shake-up look promising. Hopefully the Nats can build early leads that prove to be bullpen-proof and leave New York still in first place. It’s a long season and the division won’t be won or lost this weekend. That said, wins in April count the same as wins in September. The Nats’ ability to convert their historically hot-hitting into wins over the coming days and (hopefully) weeks could be difference in what promises to be a close division race.

The first game of the series going to extra innings proves how tough the Mets are and will be. The Nats won last night’s Battle of the Bullpens and have assured that they’ll leave New York in first place. Just winning the series will keep them 2.5 games up on the Mets and six games over .500 – sweeping would put them eight games over. The Nats have two more games to maximize their advantages while they can. One down. Two more to go.