Every Nats fan knows June 8, 2010. The immortal Charlie Slowes bellowed the now-famous line: “Remember where you are, so you remember where you were!” It was voted one of the Five Greatest Moments in Nationals history. The “Natinals” were a laughing stock after the incredible 50-31 run in the first half of 2005, compiling a 362 -529, a paltry .406 winning percentage since. Stephen Strasburg’s debut was the first tangible fruit of “The Plan.” His debut filled Nationals Park with a playoff-like atmosphere, and he did not disappoint.
He dazzled, baffling Pirate hitters, en route to a 7-inning, 14-strikeout, historic masterpiece. Those 14 strikeouts would be a Nationals record for six years. His debut overshadowed Bryce Harper’s two years later. People filled the seats to celebrate “Strasmas,” moreso than they ever did with Harper. With a blazing upper-90’s fastball, mixed in with a hammer curve, and a disappearing changeup, he was appointment viewing every time he toed the rubber.
Fast forward seven years later, and Stephen Strasburg is almost forgotten, if not underrated; a victim of the insane hype surrounding him, a Tommy John recipient, the infamous shutdown, and missing six or seven starts over each of the last two years. Most national pundits bloviate about the Mets’ young guns, Madison Bumgarner’s playoff heroics, Clayton Kershaw’s dominance, Jake Arrieta’s incredible run and Cy Young in 2015, and Jose Fernandez’s “passion for the game” before his tragic death. On top of that, he pitches in the heterochromia iridum shadow of a mound-stalking psychopath. Seeing Max Scherzer in the 8th inning, stomping around the mound, and “carrying the luggage” as FP Santangelo appropriately named it is a delight for Nats fans. Fiery, passionate, and as competitive athlete as there is in sports. He has been known to kindly ask his manager to leave him, if he sees fit.
Scherzer’s personality is as captivating as his sheer dominance. He shattered Strasburg’s 14 Ks (previously broken by Tanner Roark with 15), with a 119-pitch, MLB-record-tying 20-strikeout performance. In winning the NL Cy Young in 2016, Scherzer joined Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Roy Halladay as the only pitchers in baseball to win the award in both leagues. Scherzer deserves his accolades and is arguably the second-best pitcher in baseball. It’s easy to focus on Max and forget about the more reserved, yet intensely competitive in his own right, Strasburg.
Yes, injuries have diminished Strasburg’s star, but most of the national pundits overlook a fantastic pitcher. Once referred to as the greatest pitching prospect ever, Strasburg would be the #1 starter on 24 of the other 29 MLB teams—save for Chris Sale in Boston, Noah Syndergaard in New York, Bumgarner in San Francisco, Kershaw in LA, and maybe Arrieta in Chicago. And that last one is arguable, as Arrieta had 3.57 FIP last year, and Strasburg had a higher WAR despite pitching approximately 50 fewer innings. The only thing that has limited Strasburg has been injuries. But when he is healthy, he is as good any pitcher in baseball. His dichotomous year in 2015 illustrates this point:
Injured, he struggled mighty in the first half; once healthy, Strasburg was dominating in the second. He carried that into 2016, starting on a 13-0 run that would make him the first NL pitcher to do so in a century. He would go 15-1 before the injury bug hit him again with an upper back issue and then the flexor mass strain (Dr. Eric Bickel, MD, on 106.7 seems to think this portends to another Tommy John surgery). In between DL stints in 2015 and 2016, he made 30 starts—about a full season, give or take a start or two. Over those 30 starts:
21-3, 2.39 ERA, 253 Ks (11.39/9), 46 walks (2.07/9). That is a unanimous Cy Young campaign. That is what he is capable of.
Over the course of his career, Strasburg has had one campaign where he failed to record fewer than 10 K/9. He does a very good job keeping men off base with a career 1.09 WHIP, while posting a career 2.84 FIP. Those are top of the rotation numbers. In an effort to stay healthy this year, Strasburg will pitch entirely from the stretch, and will throw his slider less—down from 16.8% in 2016 to 5.7% this year. The alteration to his windup has shown no ill effects. He has pitched seven innings all four of his starts. His fastball is averaging 95.7 MPH—the highest it’s been since 2012. The biggest change, however, is his soft-contact rate (as of Wednesday):
While Strasburg is known more for his strikeout numbers, his soft contact percentage leaped from 15.4% in 2014 to 21.8% in 2015 — and has stayed there. By contrast, the last three years, Roark has posted soft hit rates of 21.9%, 23.1%, and 19.3%. In the same vein, Strasburg is inducing a ridiculous 56.0% ground balls, while allowing a slim 18.7% line drive rate. He’s not just a strikeout pitcher anymore. He’s pitching deeper into games, and has become a complete player—even if people don’t recognize it.
As my wife so eloquently put it the other day: It’s beginning to look a lot like Strasmas!
Tags: Nationals, Nats, Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Leave a Reply