The PTBNL Problem: Analyzing Trea Turner’s Unusual Circumstances

Few minor league players will play under more bizarre circumstances during the season’s first two and a half months than shortstop prospect Trea Turner. By the middle of June, Turner will be with the Washington Nationals, the team that acquired him to bolster a weak area of its farm system and to potentially become the long-term replacement of Ian Desmond. Though his major league chances ultimately lie in their hands, Turner is required to begin the year with the team that traded him, the San Diego Padres.

On Tuesday the Padres revealed their plans for Turner, who will work through Spring Training as usual before opening the year with a minor league affiliate, most likely the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm (California League). Under major league draft rules Turner, whom the Nationals acquired along with right-handed pitching prospect Joe Ross in December’s three-team deal with the Padres and the Tampa Bay Rays, cannot be traded until the one-year anniversary of when he signed with the organization. San Diego selected him with the 13th-overall pick in last year’s draft and officially signed him on June 13.

Within days of its completion, this element of the trade became a source of controversy when Turner’s agent, Jeff Berry of Creative Artists Agency (CAA), relayed his criticism to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Among other statements, Berry said in relation to the Padres handling of Turner, “the plan to ‘trust us’ is not enough when it comes to a player’s well-being and career.”

Considering what is at stake for Turner and the two clubs, trust is an imperfect but necessary solution. Other than placing him in Lake Elsinore or with another affiliate, the Padres only option is leave to him at their complex in Arizona for Extended Spring Training. While that would make it easier to monitor Turner’s health, that move would take him out of meaningful game action and cut into significant development time. The Padres could exploit a loophole by simply loaning Turner to the Nationals, but that scenario rarely plays out, and essentially never happens when the player to be named later is reported widely and implicitly stated by both teams.

There is in an inherent risk in allowing Turner to play every day in the Padres’ system, as a freak injury could squander the deal. What is important to remember is that the Padres, aside from the glaringly obvious responsibility to protect their own players, have a lot of reasons to keep him healthy. While Turner is not backed by union protection as a minor leaguer, having Berry and the powerful CAA in his camp is crucial. The practice of a front office alienating any large agency in baseball is ill-advised, but especially one that represents key major league players. According to MLB Trade Rumors’ Agency Database, CAA’s clients include three members of the Padres’ 40-man roster: starting pitcher Andrew Cashner and outfielders Carlos Quinten and Wil Myers, the latter of whom was the centerpiece of the Padres’ return in the deal that sent Turner to Washington.

Also at stake is the relationship between two active general managers whose teams are on the upswing. Mike Rizzo has frequently turned to the trade market to keep the Nationals competitive, while A.J. Preller has remade the Padres with a busy offseason. If Preller is to establish himself as a reliable GM, it means assuring that a poor decision does not result in crossing another team, particularly one as prominent as the Nationals.

Considering what must be dealt with, allowing Turner to open the season on a full-season team is the best solution for everyone. He will receive regular playing time and avoid falling behind in his development, while a smooth transition will secure a comfortable relationship between the two teams. His health is crucial, but Turner can use this situation to make a seamless transition to the Nationals and claim his place among their best prospects.


Will Rendon Have a Sophomore Slump?

Before he will even start his second full MLB season, Anthony Rendon has already usurped former Gold Glove winner and Face of the Franchise Ryan Zimmerman as starting third baseman, led the National League’s best team in WAR, and finished top 5 in MVP voting. He’s done this all while playing half of those games at a brand new position. The only question that seems to remain for Rendon is whether he will be able to sustain this extraordinary level of success or whether he will fall victim to the dreaded sophomore slump.

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Washington Nationals Introduce Stephen Strasburg

How The 2015 Washington Nationals Came To Be

With spring training upon us, I thought I would take stock of the club’s roster and how they got here. Take a look below at the Washington Nationals starters and how they ended up  with the organization:

C Wilson Ramos - Traded for former closer Matt Capps
1B Ryan Zimmerman - No. 4 pick in the 2005 First Year Player Draft
2B  Yunel Escobar - Traded for set-up man Tyler Clippard
SS Ian Desmond - Drafted in the third round of the 2004 First Year Player Draft
3B Anthony Rendon - No. 6 pick in the 2011 First Year Player Draft
CF Denard Span - Traded for hard throwing pitching prospect Alex Meyer
RF Jayson Werth - Free agent, signed a 7-year, $126 million contract in 2011
LF Bryce Harper - No. 1 pick in the 2010 First Year Player Draft

SP Max Scherzer - Free agent, signed a 7-year, $210 million contract in 2015
SP Stephen Strasburg - No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 First Year Player Draft
SP Jordan Zimmermann - Drafted in the second round of the 2007 First Year Player Draft
SP Doug Fister - Traded for prospects Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Kroll, and Robbie Ray
SP Gio Gonzlez - Traded for prospect A.J. Cole, Tommy Milone, Derek Norris, and Brad Peacock
SP Tanner Roark - Traded for Cristian Guzman


Six trades in which the Nats gave up Cristian Guzman, A.J. Cole (got him back), Tommy Milone, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock, Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol, Robbie Ray, Alex Meyer, Tyler Clippard, and Matt Capps. The Nats are +24 in WAR cumulative in those trades.

Two free-agent acquisitions, totaling $336 million over 14 seasons.

Six draft picks, including two No. 1 overall, four top-10 picks, one second round pick, and one third round pick.



Florida Governor Endorses Nats, Astros Proposal

Though far from official, the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros’ proposed Spring Training complex in Palm Beach County received a major endorsement on Wednesday. In a letter on his website, Governor Rick Scott announced that he was pleased with the project’s terms and was happy to reach an agreement to keep the two teams in Florida. More from Scott’s statement:

“Florida is proud to be the home of fifteen spring training teams, and we are excited to announce that the Washington Nationals and the Houston Astros have chosen to stay in Florida for the next 30 years. Spring Training has helped to bring Florida families together, create jobs in our communities, and drive tourists to our state. Florida is undoubtedly the best state for baseball, and we look forward to many more years of Spring Training attracting visitors and creating opportunities for Florida families.”

Now Palm Beach County’s Legislative Delegation must push the project through Florida’s House and Senate. As noted here on Tuesday, environmental concerns surround the project, as the its construction currently violates state law because of its proximity to Damn M, a drinking water supply. Previous reports indicate that it is expected to pass through the legislative process, with Scott’s announcement signaling that it already has his approval. If all of the pieces fall into place, the Astros and the Nationals new facility will open in 2017.


Plans Move Forward For Shared Nats, Astros Spring Training Facility

Last week two major steps were taken to push the Washington Nationals’ and the Houston Astros’ proposed $135 million Spring Training complex in West Palm Beach toward becoming a reality. The first was the approval of a land swap between West Palm Beach and Palm Beach County that allows the county to take control of the 160-acre property slated for the facility. Within a matter of days, the county’s Legislative Delegation agreed to propose a modification to a state law that would loosen restrictions on where development can occur near area water supplies.

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Washington Nationals 2015 Spring Training Broadcast Schedule (TV and Radio)

The Washington Nationals have released their 2015 Spring Training TV and Radio schedule, and it pretty closely mirrors what we saw in 2014. There will be seven games televised on MASN, one more than last year, with 10 games picked up by Charlie and Dave on the radio. Some of these broadcasts will overlap.

This list does not include games that are available from the opposing team’s broadcast affiliates. We will update the list with a new post and all that information when it is available for those that are subscribers who are interested in tuning into those broadcasts.

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Nats Talk On The Go: Episode 90

We rejoiced in the end of football season by digging into the Casey Janssen trade and the Nats bullpen. Then, we fought out who should win The Nats Blog’s writing competition to pick the best starting pitcher, and Craig talks about the exciting state of Nationals’ prospects.



Which Nats Starter Is The Best: Doug Fister

This post is the final installment of a series we’ve been running here on The Nats Blog, debating which of the club’s stellar five (Sorry Roark) starting pitchers is actually the best. On Monday I made an argument that Max Scherzer was the team’s top hurler, only to be countered by Joe who on Tuesday claimed Stephen Strasburg was the best. Andrew made his arguments for Jordan Zimmermann on Wednesday, and Zach made a gallant effort on behalf of Gio Gonzalez yesterday.

Today, however, I will be debating the merits of Doug Fister. Doesn’t this mean that you are arguing against yourself you may be asking? Yes I am, deal with it.  Continue reading…


Which Nats Starter Is The Best?: Gio Gonzalez

On Monday, Will made the case for Max Scherzer as the Nationals’ best starter, followed by Joe’s argument for Stephen Strasburg on Tuesday and Andrew’s claim for Jordan Zimmermann on Wednesday. Now comes the moment readers of The Nats Blog have anxiously anticipated: the minor league guy is making a case for Gio Gonzalez.

Logically, Gonzalez is not better than Scherzer, Strasburg, or Zimmermann, and might not even stack up favorably to Doug Fister, whom Erin Flynn will discuss tomorrow. A typical season for Gonzalez features good strikeout numbers, but also a high walk rate and an ERA somewhere in the mid threes with an FIP that’s not too far off that mark. Those are good numbers, but unlikely to make him the Cy Young Award contender that Scherzer, Zimmermann, and/or Strasburg seem destined to be this year. Continue reading…


Report: Nationals Sign Former Blue Jays Closer Casey Janssen

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Nats have come to terms on a one-year,  $5 million deal with former Blue Jays closer Casey Janssen.

At the age of 32, Janssen saw his production decrease dramatically toward the end of last season. In 2012 and 2013 he averaged 28 saves with a 2.55 ERA, only to see the wheels fall off a bit in 2014 with a 3.94 ERA with 25 saves. In reality, things really seemed to fall apart in the second half of the season for the right-hander. Janssen posted 14 saves with a 1.23 ERA in the first half of 2014, but only 11 saves with a 6.46 ERA in the second half.

It’s unclear what specific role Janssen is expected to play in the Nats bullpen. As we discussed yesterday, there is some general ambiguity as to who will play what roles behind likely closer Drew Storen. I’m sure in a perfect world scenario for GM Mike Rizzo, Janssen regains his form of previous seasons and takes Tyler Clippard’s spot as the club’s set-up guy.